**H-1B Changes to Have Little Effect on Indian Remittances: Barclays**
*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 04:52 PM*
A recent Barclays research report suggests that the recent changes to the US H-1B visa program will have a minimal impact on remittances sent by overseas Indians. This analysis comes in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s announcement of significant modifications to the H-1B visa rules, including the introduction of a one-time fee of $100,000 for new visas and the implementation of a wage-based selection process.
### Changes to the H-1B Visa System
The updated H-1B visa system replaces the traditional lottery-based selection with a wage-based approach. Under this new framework, high-skilled and high-paid applicants receive multiple entries in the selection pool, increasing their chances of securing a visa. While Barclays acknowledges that these changes could lead to some job losses and affect individual livelihoods, the overall impact on remittances is expected to be limited. According to their estimates, any remittance reduction is unlikely to exceed $5 billion from the current total of $83 billion.
### Market Dynamics and the Rise of Global Capability Centers
The report also highlights the growing prominence of global capability centers (GCCs), many of which are operated by US-headquartered firms. These GCCs are expected to continue supporting India’s services exports rather than impeding them.
India remains a key player in the IT and IT-enabled services sector, with 62% of sector exports directed to the US market. Barclays emphasizes that the industry’s growth has not been solely dependent on US-based employment, suggesting that the overhaul of the H-1B visa program will not drastically alter India’s overall service export landscape.
### Impact on Global Talent Movement
Furthermore, the study notes that other countries, such as Germany and Canada, are actively seeking to attract high-skilled Indian professionals. This emerging trend may influence the redistribution of Indian talent flows in the medium term but is unlikely to offset India’s position as a major exporter of IT services.
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In summary, while the H-1B visa changes introduce new challenges, Barclays’ analysis indicates that the effects on Indian remittances and the broader IT services export sector will be limited in scale. India’s strong foothold in global IT services and the rise of GCCs are expected to sustain the country’s competitive edge despite evolving visa policies.
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