**Indian Rupee Opens Cautiously Against US Dollar Amid Mixed Signals**
The Indian Rupee (INR) opened cautiously against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/INR pair ticking up to near 88.75. This movement came despite positive hints from United States (US) President Donald Trump regarding his stable relationship with Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi.
Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office on Thursday, President Trump remarked, “He (PM Modi) largely stopped buying from Russia. And he is a friend of mine, and we speak. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a great man. He is a friend of mine, and we speak and he wants me to go there. We will figure that out, I will go. Prime Minister Modi is a great man and I will be going,” as reported by India Today. Later, Trump expressed optimism about making a visit to India next year.
These comments came at a time when overseas investors remain cautious about the Indian stock market, primarily due to delays in finalizing a trade agreement between India and the US. Top negotiators from both nations have been close to reaching a consensus for months but have yet to agree on all terms.
On Thursday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to be net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs. 3,263.21 crore. Cumulatively, FIIs have pared stakes worth Rs. 6,214 crore over just three trading days this month.
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### Indian Rupee Faces Pressure Amid US Economic Data
The Indian Rupee faced downward pressure against the US Dollar, even as the latter corrected further following the release of US Challenger job cuts data for October.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s strength against six major currencies, inched higher to near 99.80 after sharply falling to about 99.60 on Thursday.
The Challenger job cuts report revealed that 153,074 employees were laid off in October — a 183% surge from September and 175% higher compared to the same month last year. This marks the highest level of layoffs for any October since 2003 and signals the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.
Analysts noted that the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the private sector has contributed significantly to these layoffs, making job market conditions especially tough in the last quarter of the year.
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### Impact on US Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook
Historically, the US Challenger jobs data has only had a limited impact on the US Dollar. However, its influence has intensified amid the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which has become the longest in American history.
Signs of a cooling job market have slightly increased expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its December policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut—bringing rates to a 3.50%–3.75% range—rose to 67%, up from 62% the previous day.
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### Technical Analysis: USD/INR Nears Key Levels
USD/INR edged up to near 88.75 on Friday and continues to find support near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently trades around 88.60. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting to move back above the 60.00 mark. A fresh bullish momentum is likely to emerge if the RSI manages to cross this level.
Looking at the downside, the August 21 low of 87.07 remains a key support level for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high of 89.12 presents a significant resistance barrier.
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**Summary:** Despite positive remarks from President Trump on US-India relations, the Indian Rupee is trading lower against the US Dollar, influenced by external economic factors and market sentiment. Investors continue to watch closely for developments in the US-India trade pact, US economic indicators, and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/indian-rupee-ticks-lower-despite-optimism-on-us-india-trade-deal/
