The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model has begun to question his own creation and the relevance of the traditional four-year market cycles.
Bears believe that $126,000 was the peak for Bitcoin, predicting that BTC will fall below $100,000 and that 2026 will usher in a bear market mainly due to the four-year cycle. However, the creator observed, “IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.”
While there have indeed been four-year cycles revolving around Bitcoin halvings, he pointed out that “three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern.” He also emphasized that it is “absolutely not guaranteed” that the market top will again occur 18 months after the previous halving, which is scheduled for October.
### This Cycle Is Different. Or Is It?
The analyst suggested that the cycle top could very well appear in 2026, 2027, or even 2028. “Actually, I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom),” he explained.
He added, “What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle. Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing. Both scenarios are very bullish for Bitcoin.”
### Other Analysts Share Optimism
‘PlanB’ is not alone in his belief that the bull market has more room to run. Analyst Willy Woo observed that the liquidity driving the cycle top in the last bull market primarily came from paper derivative markets, which are short-term instruments.
“This cycle is shaping up differently,” Woo noted. “Paper has already started dropping away, while longer-term spot liquidity is holding up for now.”
### Market Sentiment and Price Movements
Last week, when Bitcoin dropped below $104,000, many investors feared a bear market had just begun. Some hoped the price would rise again to allow them to exit at a reasonable level, according to analyst ‘Rekt Capital.’ They added that “people feel differently about price now,” following a recovery — though this was written before today’s renewed slump.
### Bitcoin Price Tanks Again
Bitcoin has fallen more than 3% over the past few hours, crashing back to $107,700 during Tuesday morning’s Asian trading session. It appeared to find support around the critical $108,000 level, with the plunge halting there at the time of writing.
What remains clear is that crypto markets are still very jittery and need solid fundamentals to gain the boost that analysts are looking for.
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https://cryptopotato.com/4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-a-big-misunderstanding-planb/
