In the world of commodities, there are two distinct types of bull markets: the good kind, driven by strong demand, and the terrible kind, fueled by supply shocks. The former tends to be more durable, often requiring higher-for-longer prices to encourage investment in new supply. In contrast, the latter usually proves to be short-lived.
Over the past 25 years, the copper market has experienced both kinds. Prices have soared from $2,000 per metric ton in 2000 to a record high of $11,104 last year. Often, the factors driving these price changes were so intertwined that it was difficult to determine which was more influential.
Right now, however, the situation is very clear: the issue lies with supply. Copper mines face numerous accidents each year, prompting analysts to include a disruption allowance in their annual supply forecasts. Even by these standards, the red metal has encountered far more disruptions than the market anticipated.
This has pushed copper prices above the $10,000 mark, reflecting the severity of the current supply challenges.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-02/copper-is-enjoying-the-wrong-kind-of-bull-market
