Three weeks remain in the college football regular season following the Week 11 slate, which posed tough tests for contenders nationwide. The release of the first College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings before the weekend added an extra layer of intrigue.
Indiana passed a significant road test in Happy Valley, edging out Penn State 27-24 thanks to late heroics from Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. Oregon narrowly escaped Iowa with a hard-fought victory in the pouring rain to remain at one loss, while Texas A&M dominated Missouri in the second half, securing a strong road win over a ranked opponent.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech cemented its status as the team to beat with a dominant 29-7 win over BYU in Lubbock. Although the Cougars have just one loss and remain in contention, they’ll need to work hard to earn another shot at the Red Raiders in the conference title game.
With these results, the races in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 gained some clarity. However, the same cannot be said for the ACC, where Louisville suffered its second conference loss and Virginia experienced its first (or second?) with an upset at home against Wake Forest. Now, predicting who will earn the automatic qualifier (AQ) from the ACC is as difficult as ever.
Let’s break down what the latest CFP rankings might look like in our Week 12 College Football Playoff predictions.
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### 1. Ohio State (9-0)
The selection committee confirmed Ohio State as the top team in its initial rankings, and a routine win over Purdue Saturday shouldn’t change that. Despite Purdue’s early attempts, the Boilermakers lacked the firepower to threaten the Buckeyes. Quarterback Julian Sayin is quietly building a Heisman Trophy case, with Jeremiah Smith delivering another outstanding performance. Ohio State’s 9-0 record sets up a near-certain trip to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, though a rematch against Michigan after Thanksgiving still looms.
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### 2. Texas A&M (9-0)
Texas A&M continues to silence doubters by passing every test convincingly. On Saturday, the Aggies’ run game exploded in a 38-17 win over Missouri, a team missing its quarterback but still featuring a solid defense. Stacking wins steadily, Texas A&M looks on track to clinch the SEC title and hold the No. 2 spot—assuming Ohio State or Indiana stumbles eventually. Upcoming games include a home clash with South Carolina and a matchup against Samford, leading to a high-stakes Black Friday showdown with Texas.
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### 3. Indiana (10-0)
Indiana didn’t display its usual dominance Saturday but survived and advanced. Fernando Mendoza rallied the team from the brink, while Omar Cooper Jr.’s incredible toe-tap sealed a 27-24 victory in Happy Valley. The Hoosiers face just two remaining regular-season games against struggling Wisconsin and Purdue, with a bye week in between. Winning both would likely propel Curt Cignetti’s squad to the Big Ten Championship game.
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### 4. Alabama (8-1)
Saturday night wasn’t always pretty for Alabama, but the Tide pulled through against a struggling LSU team, still reeling from Brian Kelly’s firing. Ty Simpson and the passing game had ups and downs, but the defense forced LSU to bench Garrett Nussmeier and sealed a 20-9 victory. Alabama faces Oklahoma in a crucial Week 12 home game, both teams fighting for playoff survival. Despite potential setbacks—including a possible SEC title game loss to Texas A&M—Alabama’s strong resume, including a head-to-head win over Georgia, keeps them in the top-four conversation.
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### 5. Georgia (8-1)
Georgia overcame an early sluggish quarter to dominate Mississippi State on the road, boosting their record to 8-1. Bulldogs fans welcomed the blowout after a series of nail-biters in SEC play. The schedule doesn’t ease up, with a Week 12 home game against No. 11 Texas on tap. If Georgia gets through that unscathed, a Thanksgiving weekend matchup with Georgia Tech awaits.
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### 6. Texas Tech (9-1)
Texas Tech sent a strong message atop the Big 12 by dismantling previously undefeated BYU 29-7. The Red Raiders boast the conference’s best defense—an intimidating unit for any CFP contender. If Texas Tech performs up to potential, nobody can stop Joey McGuire’s team from making a deep run. Currently the Big 12 favorite, a conference title could vault them to as high as the No. 6 seed.
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### 7. Ole Miss (9-1)
In a surprising turn, Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss cruised past The Citadel Saturday. November shouldn’t be this easy anymore. With two games remaining—hosting Florida (off a tough loss) and a bye before the Egg Bowl—the Rebels appear poised for their first CFP appearance if they close strong.
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### 8. Oregon (8-1)
After debuting lower than expected in the CFP rankings, Oregon’s title hopes nearly dimmed in a tough, rainy test against Iowa. Dan Lanning’s team held on for a gritty victory to reach 8-1. The Ducks face Minnesota at home next, followed by games against a red-hot USC and a season closer at Washington. A conference title feels unlikely, but three more wins could punch their CFP ticket.
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### 9. Notre Dame (7-2)
Notre Dame rose to No. 9 in the first CFP rankings after a dominant 49-10 win against Navy, whose quarterback was sidelined. Marcus Freeman’s team faces a stiff test against ranked Pittsburgh in Week 12 before closing the season against Stanford and Syracuse. The Irish now appear more concerned with hosting a playoff game than just making the field.
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### 10. Vanderbilt (8-2)
The final at-large spot currently belongs to Vanderbilt, though Texas would likely take it if the field were set today. Vanderbilt’s path to a 10-2 finish is more manageable than Texas’s (which includes games against Georgia and Texas A&M) or Oklahoma’s (with a road trip to Alabama). After narrowly escaping upset against Auburn, the Commodores close with Kentucky and Tennessee. Two wins could likely secure their spot, though they may need some help.
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### 11. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Who will emerge from the ACC? After Georgia Tech lost the top spot with a defeat to NC State, Louisville and Virginia both suffered upset losses Saturday. Duke also lost out-of-conference to UConn, marking a weak showing overall for the league. Five teams (Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU, Duke) all sit atop the conference with one loss. Right now, Georgia Tech looks like the best of the bunch, with games against Boston College, Pitt, and a season finale against Georgia.
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### 12. South Florida (7-2)
The Group of Five race muddied further Friday when Memphis lost to Tulane, handing Memphis its second conference defeat and likely knocking them out of contention. Now, five teams in the American Athletic Conference—Navy, South Florida, Tulane, North Texas, and East Carolina—all have one conference loss. South Florida leads the pack thanks to non-conference wins over Florida and Boise State, earning the slot for now. Keep an eye on James Madison as well, who holds only a road loss to Louisville and could break into the field if South Florida and Tulane slip.
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### In the Mix
– Texas
– Oklahoma
– Utah
– BYU
– USC
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## Quarterfinal Predictions
**Rose Bowl:** No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
**Cotton Bowl:** No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Texas Tech
**Sugar Bowl:** No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
**Orange Bowl:** No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia
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## Semifinal Predictions
**Fiesta Bowl:** No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
**Peach Bowl:** No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 3 Indiana
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## National Championship Prediction
[Prediction to be announced—stay tuned.]
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With just weeks remaining, every game holds huge implications for the College Football Playoff picture. Stay tuned as we track the drama unfolding on the path to the postseason.
https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/clutchpoints-week-12-college-football-playoff-predictions
