Bitcoin Enters November After Historic October Decline Amid Trade Tensions and Federal Reserve Moves
Bitcoin finished October 2025 with a nearly 5% decline, marking its first red October since 2018 and ending a seven-year streak of gains for what had become its strongest month. This downturn coincided with the largest cryptocurrency liquidation in history, as traders liquidated $19 billion worth of positions within just 24 hours on October 10-11. During this turbulent period, Bitcoin’s price dropped to $104,782.88, just days after reaching a new all-time high above $126,000.
The sharp sell-off followed President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and threats to impose export controls on critical software. These escalating trade tensions created significant uncertainty across financial markets, sparking the dramatic crypto market movement. Despite October’s decline, Bitcoin remains up more than 16% for the year 2025.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin enters November with historical data on its side. Since 2013, November has been the strongest performing month for the cryptocurrency, averaging gains of 42.51%. If this seasonal trend repeats, Bitcoin’s price could theoretically surpass $160,000 this month. However, crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research cautions that seasonal patterns must be supported by other factors to be reliable. “I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” Thielen explained.
Trade Tensions and Recent Developments
There have been signs of easing tensions between the US and China. President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, describing the talks as “amazing” and expressing optimism about reaching a trade deal “pretty soon.” The tentative agreement involves Trump trimming tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing agrees to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, resume US soybean purchases, and lift restrictions on rare earth exports for one year.
Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University, told CBC News that the meeting represented more of a “pause” in the trade war rather than a full resolution. Nevertheless, these developments could potentially stabilize markets and benefit cryptocurrencies.
Federal Reserve Actions and Potential Impact on Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by a quarter point, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years. Fed officials are scheduled to meet again on December 10, 2025, with traders pricing in a 63% probability of another rate cut according to CME’s FedWatch tool. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that further cuts are “not a foregone conclusion.”
Lower interest rates generally benefit Bitcoin by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investors to pursue higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the Fed ended its quantitative tightening program on December 1, halting the contraction of its balance sheet aimed at cooling economic growth. This move could inject more liquidity into the economy, potentially providing further support to Bitcoin prices.
US Government Shutdown Delays Crypto Regulatory Progress
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has entered its fifth week, as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over spending plans. President Trump has urged Republicans to abolish the Senate filibuster rule, which currently allows a small group of senators to block majority actions.
This ongoing shutdown has delayed the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of several cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It has also stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, a legislative bill designed to address crypto market structure and regulatory clarity.
Conclusion
Despite October’s unexpected downturn fueled by trade tensions and market liquidations, Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests strong potential for gains in November. Easing US-China trade relations and Federal Reserve policies aimed at lowering interest rates may provide additional support for the cryptocurrency. However, ongoing political challenges, including the US government shutdown, continue to pose obstacles to regulatory advancements in the crypto space. Investors will closely watch these developments as Bitcoin moves into historically favorable territory this month.
https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-history-points-to-bullish-november-after-red-october/
